Turning Point

Fourth Turnings and the Path Ahead

Get acquainted, you’re living through it.

"The Fourth Turning" is a theory developed by historians William Strauss and Neil Howe, introduced in their 1997 book The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy. It suggests that history unfolds in recurring cycles, or "turnings," approximately every 80-100 years, divided into four distinct phases. These cycles are based on generational archetypes and have been identified in Western history since the late medieval period, covering roughly five centuries.

Painting titled Cyrus the Great defeating the Babylonian army by John Martin (1831)

The Four Turnings:

1. High: A period of optimism and institutional strength following a crisis, where society is unified.

2. Awakening: A time of spiritual revolution, where individualism clashes with established norms.

3. Unravelling: Institutions become weak, and individualism is strong, leading to cultural fragmentation.

4. Crisis (Fourth Turning): A major upheaval (e.g., war, revolution) that restructures society, paving the way for a new High.

Generational Archetypes:

The theory identifies four archetypes, each shaping and being shaped by their era:

1. Prophets (e.g., Baby Boomers): Born after a Crisis during a High, they come of age during an Awakening and become values-driven leaders during a Crisis.

2. Nomads (e.g., Generation X): Born during an Awakening, they grow up in an Unravelling, often becoming pragmatic and resilient in Crisis leadership roles.

3. Heroes (e.g., Millennials): Born during an Unravelling, they grow up protected and come of age during a Crisis, often embodying collective action and sacrifice.

4. Artists (e.g., Gen Z): Born during a Crisis, they experience a sheltered upbringing and come of age in a High, often becoming sensitive supporters of institutions.

This theory of cycles and archetypes aligns with the frequently echoed adage: “Hard times create strong people, strong people create good times, good times create weak people, and weak people create hard times.”

Fourth turning-Generational characteristics as a function of age

Archetypes Shape the Future:

The generational archetypes take on different roles and attitudes in each turning. In the Fourth Turning, crises compel societies to resolve deep-rooted issues, leading to structural shifts and new societal values. As current generational cycles align, many suggest that the early 21st century marks the latest Fourth Turning, with significant upheavals in politics, technology, and social norms potentially driving a transformative era.

The rise and fall of Great Britain’s global influence from the 18th to the 20th century, provides a modern historical perspective. Britain's history offers clear cycles that mirror the four "turnings" Strauss and Howe outline, particularly from the Industrial Revolution through to post-World War II decline and the rise of American influence.

1. High (Victorian Britain and Post-WWII Western World)

• Victorian Britain: Britain’s High aligns with the height of the British Empire in the 19th century, following the Industrial Revolution. During this period, Britain experienced political stability, economic growth, and significant expansion, leading it to dominate world trade and culture. The national identity was cohesive, and there was a strong belief in institutions, imperial duty, and societal order.

• Modern Western World: The post-WWII era similarly marked a High for Western countries, especially the U.S., which took a leading global role. This period saw prosperity, trust in institutions, and a stable international order underpinned by alliances and economic bodies. The focus was on collective goals like economic security and shared democratic values.

2. Awakening (Late Victorian Britain and 1960s Cultural Revolution)

• Late Victorian Britain: The late 19th century saw Britain questioning its identity, imperial mission, and class structures, sparking movements for workers’ rights, women’s suffrage, and social reform. The ideas of personal freedom, social equality, and intellectual exploration gained traction, challenging established norms and conservative values.

• Modern Western World: In the 1960s-1970s, Western societies experienced their own Awakening, marked by a similar questioning of authority and values. Movements for civil rights, environmentalism, and women’s rights flourished, challenging traditional power structures. There was a strong shift toward individualism and cultural experimentation, creating tensions with established institutions.

3. Unravelling (Interwar Britain and Late 20th Century to Early 21st Century Western World)

• Interwar Britain: Following World War I, Britain entered a period of social upheaval and economic difficulty. The Empire’s hold weakened as colonies sought independence, the economy struggled with debt and inflation, and class divisions grew. Institutional and political fragmentation set in, with ongoing questions about Britain’s role on the global stage.

• Modern Western World: In the late 20th and early 21st centuries, Western societies also experienced an Unravelling, with declining institutional trust, economic inequality, and increasing polarization. There was a rise in individualistic values and market-driven policies, and societal consensus frayed. Social and political fragmentation intensified, raising questions about the stability of existing structures.

4. Crisis (World Wars for Britain and Current Era for the West)

• World Wars for Britain: Britain’s Crisis unfolded through the world wars, which ultimately reshaped its national identity and global role. After WWII, Britain had to face the reality of a diminished empire, economic hardship, and a shift toward a welfare state. The U.S. emerged as the new global superpower, and Britain focused on rebuilding itself domestically, ushering in a new social and economic model.

• Modern Western World: Today’s Fourth Turning moment is seen in ongoing economic, political, and social crises in the West. The COVID-19 pandemic, rising geo-political tensions and authoritarianism, economic inequality, and climate crises all challenge Western societies to re-evaluate their structures and values. This polycrisis appears to be leading toward a shift in sentiment, with new power structures emerging and redefining society and its values.

Parallels and Lessons

The trajectory of Great Britain over the past few centuries provides a modern historical parallel to the four turnings. Britain’s cycles of growth, cultural awakening, decline, and crisis mirror those in modern Western societies. Just as Britain experienced a gradual transformation and redefined itself after the world wars, Western societies today face a transformative period that could lead to new institutions, alliances, and values.

Like Britain post-1945, Western nations may emerge from this period reoriented, either by reasserting democratic values with renewed vigor or adapting to new forms of international and social order. The "four turnings" framework suggests that this Crisis could prompt foundational changes, much like those Britain navigated as it moved from empire to a modern welfare state.

The Fourth Turning theory also parallels Ray Dalio’s New World Order framework, which presents a sweeping view of history shaped by the rise and fall of empires and global powers. Dalio, a seasoned investor and economic historian, identifies what he calls “big cycles” that chart the ascent, peak, and decline of nations over centuries. In his view, these cycles are driven by key forces: economic productivity, debt accumulation, income inequality, and geopolitical competition. Together, these elements create a repeating pattern where an empire (or dominant global power) rises to a golden age of wealth, influence, and stability, followed by inevitable overreach—when mounting debt, weakening institutions, and widening social divides set the stage for decline. The cycle culminates in a crisis that disrupts the status quo, creating space for a new order to emerge, often under the leadership of a rising power.

Dalio illustrates this through historical examples like the Dutch and British Empires, and more recently, the United States, suggesting that these cycles are natural and predictable. According to Dalio, today’s world shows many signs of nearing the end of a “big cycle” for the American-led global order, with economic and social pressures that recall past tipping points.

Illustration from Ray Dalio’s The Changing World Order

Both Dalio’s New World Order and The Fourth Turning agree that crises also bring opportunities for renewal. Just as Strauss and Howe see each Fourth Turning as a transformative winter that clears the ground for new growth, Dalio believes that a new order—while challenging to navigate—offers a chance to build stronger foundations. History shows that societies have repeatedly emerged from these upheavals with new ideas, innovations, and values that shape a more resilient future. It suggests that while we may be entering a turbulent period, it is also an opportunity for collective reinvention, guided by lessons from the past and the drive for a brighter, reimagined future.

Turning Points in Leadership

In Fourth Turning eras, societies often turn to bold, unconventional leaders who take drastic measures to confront longstanding problems. Nayib Bukele’s policies in El Salvador exemplify this pattern: his tough stance on gang violence and adoption of Bitcoin as legal tender may be controversial, but they reflect a willingness to make difficult choices in the face of crisis. By pursuing mass arrests to restore public safety and embracing decentralized finance as a counter to economic dependency, Bukele challenges traditional institutions that have proven ineffective for his country’s needs.

These actions, while polarizing, arise from a recognition that transformative change often requires going beyond what is immediately popular. Fourth Turnings demand leaders who can break the cycle of dysfunction and push for foundational reforms, even if those choices create tension in the short term. Bukele’s approach underscores the necessity of these bold policies as El Salvador seeks greater security, sovereignty, and resilience. Just as in past eras of crisis, true progress demands a willingness to take risks, confront entrenched systems, and prioritize long-term stability over the comfort of gradual reform.

The West could draw lessons from Bukele’s bold approach to reform as a way to address deep-rooted issues in its own legacy institutions. Like El Salvador, many Western countries face growing frustration with entrenched systems—whether in politics, finance, media, or social services—that often seem resistant to meaningful change and are plagued by bureaucracy, inefficiency, or outright corruption. Bukele’s willingness to take swift, sometimes radical action to overhaul ineffective institutions highlights a path forward: one that focuses on transparency, accountability, and a decisive break from the status quo.

To adopt a similar approach, Western leaders could prioritize anti-corruption measures, auditing and overhauling institutions that have long escaped scrutiny. This could mean reforming campaign finance to reduce corporate influence, imposing stricter regulations on political lobbying, or holding financial institutions accountable for practices that contribute to inequality and economic instability. Leaders could also support decentralized and transparent technologies—such as blockchain for public records—to ensure more secure, accessible, and trustworthy systems for governance, finance, and public services. Additionally, fostering independent news sources, as younger generations are increasingly seeking, could challenge the dominance of legacy media and bring fresher, less biased perspectives to the public.

Bukele’s model underscores that tackling corruption and “clearing out the rot” doesn’t have to be a slow, incremental process. In times of social and economic turmoil, bold, transparent action can provide the renewal people crave. By adopting this approach, the West could rebuild faith in public institutions, creating a foundation for resilience and trust in a rapidly changing world.

Fourth Turning Tech

In our current Fourth Turning, we’re witnessing the birth and evolution of institutions that reflect a growing desire for resilience, transparency, and independence from traditional systems. This era of transformation is reshaping established structures and nurturing alternatives that feel better suited to a world in flux—one where trust in legacy institutions has been deeply eroded.

Bitcoin and Decentralized Finance: Bitcoin stands as one of the most emblematic institutions of this Fourth Turning. Created in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, it emerged as a response to mistrust in centralized financial systems that were seen as opaque, inequitable, and vulnerable to manipulation. Bitcoin offers a decentralized, transparent, and finite digital currency, free from the control of banks or governments. It symbolizes a desire for financial autonomy and stability in a time when faith in traditional currencies and financial institutions is waning. For many, it represents a kind of “digital gold”—a safe haven that stands outside the reach of a potentially fragile global financial system. Alongside Bitcoin, other decentralized financial platforms are emerging, promising new ways to lend, borrow, and trade assets without traditional banks as intermediaries. These institutions reflect a rejection of centralized financial control and a movement toward peer-to-peer models that prioritize transparency, resilience, and independence.

Decentralized Media: Media consumption is shifting from traditional news sources and corporate platforms toward a more grassroots, peer-to-peer (P2P) model, where independent creators provide news, analysis, and insight directly to audiences. Younger generations are increasingly bypassing legacy media, drawn instead to content from creators on platforms like YouTube, Substack, and independent podcasts. These creators often operate outside the bounds of corporate influence, political agendas, and censorship, offering a more unfiltered, diverse array of perspectives.

This P2P news ecosystem values authenticity and independence, with creators funded directly by their audiences rather than advertisers or political entities. As a result, content from these sources is often viewed as more transparent and responsive to its followers' concerns, aligning with a broader desire for truth and accountability. This shift also democratizes information: voices from varied backgrounds and communities can now gain traction without requiring approval or support from established media conglomerates.

This direct access to creators is reshaping the way people receive information, making it less top-down and more communal. The growing distrust in traditional media—often perceived as overly influenced by political or corporate interests—is driving the rise of these independent voices. Through this network of P2P creators, people feel empowered to explore perspectives and stories that legacy media may overlook, challenge, or dilute. In this way, decentralized media is becoming a modern Fourth Turning institution, embodying a renewed push for individual agency, free exchange of ideas, and a fundamental restructuring of how society engages with truth.

Reshaping Governance and Institutions: As with previous Fourth Turnings, today’s institutions are also evolving to reflect the public’s impatience with inefficient, often ineffective systems of governance. Groups are exploring decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs), where governance is managed by blockchain technology rather than centralized authorities. In a DAO, decision-making is distributed across a community of stakeholders who vote on key issues, giving people a direct say in the operations of the organization. This model has shown potential for reimagining everything from local governments to global corporations, suggesting a future where organizations are owned and operated more democratically, efficiently, and transparently.

Tokenized Assets: Tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) offer a compelling example of a Fourth Turning innovation, embodying the drive for transparency, accessibility, and democratization in an era where trust in traditional systems is waning. Through blockchain technology, tokenized RWAs convert tangible assets—like real estate, commodities, or even fine art—into digital tokens that can be traded, owned fractionally, and accessed across borders with a new level of transparency and efficiency. This shift allows individuals to invest in assets previously out of reach due to high costs or restrictive access, decentralizing ownership in a way that resonates deeply with the current era’s demand for financial inclusion and autonomy.

In the context of the Fourth Turning, tokenized RWAs disrupt conventional structures by transforming ownership from a tightly controlled, often opaque process into one that’s more community-driven and verifiable. As younger generations seek ways to sidestep legacy financial institutions and centralized controls, tokenized assets offer them an alternative: a transparent and secure way to invest, independent of traditional banks and real estate conglomerates. This new form of ownership embodies Fourth Turning themes by challenging existing power structures and offering an inclusive, resilient system for those who seek independence from the old order.

Looking Forward

When Gutenberg introduced the movable-type printing press around 1440, it revolutionized access to information. Books, previously painstakingly hand-copied, could now be mass-produced, making written knowledge accessible to far more people. This led to an explosion of literacy, scientific inquiry, and religious reform, challenging the authority of the church and the ruling elite who previously held control over knowledge. The printing press decentralized information, allowing ideas to flow freely, fostering the Reformation and later the Enlightenment. Its effects were both disruptive and generative, breaking down centralized control and enabling the birth of new social, political, and economic paradigms.

The technologies evolving through today’s Fourth Turning—such as tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) and decentralized media—echo the transformative impact of Johann Gutenberg's printing press, which fundamentally reshaped society in the 15th century. Just as the printing press democratized information, empowered individuals, and undermined established authorities, today’s disruptive technologies are breaking down traditional barriers, redistributing power, and sparking widespread societal change.

These emerging institutions represent both a reaction to the failures of the old system and a reimagining of what’s possible in a new one. Like previous Fourth Turnings, where crises reshaped society’s fundamental structures, today’s transformations reveal a strong will to create systems that better reflect the values of transparency, individual empowerment, and resilience. They illustrate how, as old systems face growing distrust, new alternatives are stepping up to fill the void, offering the promise of a future defined by greater autonomy and innovation. 

As we collectively navigate this period of upheaval, these new systems offer not only disruption but the tools to rebuild a more transparent, equitable, and empowered society. History suggests that while the path may be turbulent, we are planting the seeds of a new era—one where autonomy and access define the future.